Fantastic duo of articles, who says macro economics is boring?
My analysis of the situation is pretty simple. If we understand growth is a byproduct of a thriving private sector then by definition doing anything that gets in the way of companies making profits and growing is anti-growth. Employment rights, regulation and taxation are drags on companies performance. If the government was serious about growth they’d do everything in their power to help business make more money, but that idea runs philosophically counter to labours world view.
Speaking as a man who failed A-Level economics, thank you Liam for putting in this in terms I can grasp! A request, if I may? Could you (here or with Allison) do a piece on tariffs, which are very much a subject du jour, about which I am similarly confused.
It’s easy to think of what can go wrong but very hard to see what could go right. My impression is that the OBR has zero confidence in the fiscal plan but believes it has to let Reeves persist in her delusions
Thanks, Liam, for a thorough and very clear analysis. You show how woeful our mainstream media is in understanding, let alone explaining economics.
The OBR forecasts and public policy are built on sand, yet there is astonishing complacency amongst much of the media class and so the public.
Labour dissembles and tinkers, but we need political leadership that is rigorous, honest and ready to grasp the big underlying problems. It might even be popular.
Thanks Liam. Absolutely excellent analysis. Now for the “so what”.
It’s obvious we have the conditions now, much more than we did in October (mostly Labour created / part Trump), for a full blown fiscal crisis as the Bond market either doesn’t fund OR the price for doing so becomes unaffordable (North of 6%?).
In fact given the direction of travel it seems inevitable…… not that I wish it on our Country.
Four questions:
1. What is likely to be the sequence of events. Crises are typically a long slow movement and then “ all at once”
2. When is it likely to happen - my guess is post the Autumn Budget as the numbers really don’t “add up”
3. What would the “pill” be? In the case of Greece Financial Crisis it was double digit percentage reductions in:
- state pension
- public sector employees
- wages of remaining public sector employees
4. It’s obvious that we should sort our own issues out. Why don’t Politicians / media commentators understanding the Greek example as a “ cautionary tale”, educate us all about the real choices we face? Instead of focusing on (in the scheme of things) a vacuous debate re Welfare and Civil Service numbers. We can’t afford what’s being forecast.
Thank you Liam. Your explanations and graphs are so clear and powerful to those of us who are not economists. For that reason maybe it’s worth sending your 8 points to our Chancellor 😉. Trouble is I’m not sure her ideology will allow her to change course and acknowledge economic realities before it is too late.
Reeves is a liar and a cheat, clearly out off her depth and receiving bad advice (if she ever listens, which I doubt).
There is nothing for it but for her to be ousted by somebody who understands economics, i.e. not a woman who was on the Welcome Desk at the Halifax. When are we going to get competence and clear-eyed understanding of the facts we are faced with?
All 650 in Parliament can't be delusional and working to the same ridiculous agenda, can they?
Fantastic duo of articles, who says macro economics is boring?
My analysis of the situation is pretty simple. If we understand growth is a byproduct of a thriving private sector then by definition doing anything that gets in the way of companies making profits and growing is anti-growth. Employment rights, regulation and taxation are drags on companies performance. If the government was serious about growth they’d do everything in their power to help business make more money, but that idea runs philosophically counter to labours world view.
Speaking as a man who failed A-Level economics, thank you Liam for putting in this in terms I can grasp! A request, if I may? Could you (here or with Allison) do a piece on tariffs, which are very much a subject du jour, about which I am similarly confused.
It’s easy to think of what can go wrong but very hard to see what could go right. My impression is that the OBR has zero confidence in the fiscal plan but believes it has to let Reeves persist in her delusions
Thanks, Liam, for a thorough and very clear analysis. You show how woeful our mainstream media is in understanding, let alone explaining economics.
The OBR forecasts and public policy are built on sand, yet there is astonishing complacency amongst much of the media class and so the public.
Labour dissembles and tinkers, but we need political leadership that is rigorous, honest and ready to grasp the big underlying problems. It might even be popular.
Thanks Liam. Absolutely excellent analysis. Now for the “so what”.
It’s obvious we have the conditions now, much more than we did in October (mostly Labour created / part Trump), for a full blown fiscal crisis as the Bond market either doesn’t fund OR the price for doing so becomes unaffordable (North of 6%?).
In fact given the direction of travel it seems inevitable…… not that I wish it on our Country.
Four questions:
1. What is likely to be the sequence of events. Crises are typically a long slow movement and then “ all at once”
2. When is it likely to happen - my guess is post the Autumn Budget as the numbers really don’t “add up”
3. What would the “pill” be? In the case of Greece Financial Crisis it was double digit percentage reductions in:
- state pension
- public sector employees
- wages of remaining public sector employees
4. It’s obvious that we should sort our own issues out. Why don’t Politicians / media commentators understanding the Greek example as a “ cautionary tale”, educate us all about the real choices we face? Instead of focusing on (in the scheme of things) a vacuous debate re Welfare and Civil Service numbers. We can’t afford what’s being forecast.
Thorough, intelligent analysis. Marvellous. Shame that its dire conclusion will be borne out.
Thank you Liam. Your explanations and graphs are so clear and powerful to those of us who are not economists. For that reason maybe it’s worth sending your 8 points to our Chancellor 😉. Trouble is I’m not sure her ideology will allow her to change course and acknowledge economic realities before it is too late.
Thank you Liam. You could do with speaking to people in Reform so they can get a robust economic plan.
People are being very kind here.
Reeves is a liar and a cheat, clearly out off her depth and receiving bad advice (if she ever listens, which I doubt).
There is nothing for it but for her to be ousted by somebody who understands economics, i.e. not a woman who was on the Welcome Desk at the Halifax. When are we going to get competence and clear-eyed understanding of the facts we are faced with?
All 650 in Parliament can't be delusional and working to the same ridiculous agenda, can they?